Headline: Lee Invades the Gulf Coast

[Rich W]

Looks like Tropical Storm Lee will be the unwanted guest that stays all weekend
on this long, Labor Day weekend in the Gulf Coast region.

If this storm moves as slowly and dumps as much rain as predicted, it might be a
good time to put the "water wings" on the side view mirrors of your DeLoreans.

If in doubt, move those DeLoreans (and yourselves) to higher ground.

Try to stay dry, the best you can !!

Later,
Rich W.

[Farrar]

Thanks, Rich. I'm gonna try to replace my trunk seal before the rain really starts in earnest tonight. :)

FYI, here is a good link to info for those interested in storm-watching (http://www.stormpulse.com/).
Also, I have found Jeff Masters' blog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/) to be very helpful during hurricane season. (I've lived in New Orleans for ten years and had some very close calls!)

Farrar

[sean]

How you cats holding up?

[stevedmc]

YEAH, I put gas in my generator a few nights ago, sprayed some carb cleaner in the air intake, and it started right up.

[sean]

YEAH, I put gas in my generator a few nights ago, sprayed some carb cleaner in the air intake, and it started right up.

YEAH, that tells me nothing really.

[stevedmc]

YEAH, that tells me nothing really.

YEAH, it means I'm expecting the power to go out.

[Farrar]

The forecast last night called for the storm to head east of us, which meant we were going to be on the dry side of the storm. Now overnight its track has shifted to the west, which means we're getting more rain. Also, the wind forecast has picked up -- 60mph wind could be heading our way later tonight and into tomorrow morning. Also, the winds are not expected to shift away from the shore (instead of pushing water towards the shore, which is what they're doing now) until Sunday morning. High tide is coming and Lake Ponchartrain is just about at its top, but I don't foresee any great amount of damage. All folks will have to do is deal with the imminent power outages and wait until the winds turn and the pumps can catch up with the rain.

As I type this, it has stopped raining in River Ridge where I live and hasn't rained in almost an hour. Lee is moving incredibly slowly and has a disorganized center along the coastline, almost looking like two centers. I imagine the other half of the storm will bring more rain and wind tonight, but for now things are pretty dry where I live, which is a great contrast to this morning when people were, despite all warnings not to, driving through flooded streets and, naturally, stalling out their vehicles.

We've got chips, dip, cold drinks, and brownies in case the power goes out. And if it doesn't, enough meat and veg to keep us happily fed until Tuesday. :)

Best wishes to folks in Alabama, where they're looking at more wind and rain as well. The center of the storm may actually pass over Mobile, according to the "cone of uncertainty" this morning.

Farrar

[stevedmc]

YEAH, the man without a brain is going out tonight regardless.

[Farrar]

While we were out running some errands in town today, we decided to take a look at what the Lake looks like in the midst of Lee's rain torrent. I got Ally to stop the car on Lakeshore Drive where we saw a couple of folks standing at the water's edge.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtOfW1BnLyo

This was filmed around 4pm today. High tide will come tonight, as will more wind, and it's raining harder now, so what we were looking at here will probably be covered in water by morning. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7pm Monday.

Farrar

[Farrar]

This is from Dr. Jeff Masters' blog on the Weather Underground website today.


A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Best not to put away those galoshes yet, gang!

Farrar

[Kenny_Z]

I got a lot of wind, a couple of small tornadoes touched down around me. One morning I was up early listening to the thunder when I realized this thunder was rumbling for a very long time. Turns out it was a tornado that took out a house under construction about a mile away.

For awhile I had a new fiberglass pool with gullwings. I had to pull the carpet and dry out the car...now I have a bad leak to find :banghead:

[Farrar]

For awhile I had a new fiberglass pool with gullwings. I had to pull the carpet and dry out the car...now I have a bad leak to find :banghead:

I also noticed water in my passenger footwell and all over the carpet on that side, all the way back to the battery compartment. You and I may have windshield plenum clogs.

Glad you escaped the tornadoes! We had a lot of lightning strikes, but only one hit a tree (fortunately not near my car), and no tornadoes in our area south of Lake Ponchartrain.

Farrar