Tesla cybertruck

[DMCVegas]

Ford, GM and Chrysler dump support for anything that isn't a truck or muscle car so that's not really a fair point. Seriously, I think Ford's overall sales decreased for anything that wasn't a truck in 2019.

I disagree on that. It's a completely fair point given Toyota's approach. Toyota has integrated EV drivetrains into multiple platforms. Those platforms are in turn modular with various configurations which gets multiple vehicles which share parts onto the road. Then those vehicles can also go through badge engineering as Lexus starts releasing them under their own brand. That's important because large volume sales help to also create spare parts supplies, as well as spur investment from the aftermarket community. Ford & GM (note I didn't mention Chrysler) keep on killing this kind of support phenomenon by continuously abandoning platforms and constantly starting over. The Focus EV, Spark, & Ampera-e might as well now be sent to the same scrap pile as Fiskar. We got very lucky thanks to JZD's greed that created this massive cache of parts that keep our cars on the road, and I think we tend to take that for granted that other marques, even modern ones like these EVs don't share in our luxury.

Groupe PSA already had plans for inroads back into the North American market with Peugeot & Citroën, and that just got a whole lot easier with the FCA merger. My money is on Chrysler being the dark hose that will match Toyota and help dominate the EV market. They've already got the sales in Europe and can just expand existing production instead of having to waste R&D money on continually investing in reinventing a new EV.

I'm not going to argue that Leaf batteries are inferior to Tesla, but they are definitely not sabotaged. They're just the cheaper option. A salvage leaf battery pack runs $3k-3.5k vs a tesla pack for $8k-12k. This really boils down to what you can afford and not really a problem with EVs in general.

The Leaf batteries aren't the problem. It's the cooling systems it seems that Nissan cheaped out on. Previously Nissan issued warnings that regular Fast Charging the Leaf would decimate battery capacitance by 10%. Now the revised plan to avoid this has magically become extending fast charging times to 45 minutes versus Ford's 30 and Tesla's 20. Because the latter have decent cooling systems integrated into their battery arrays to prevent excessive heat damage.

Like FABombjoy said, this is concerning yourself with hypothetical scenarios. You could just have easily have a gas-powered car run out of gas next to a wall outlet.

I can carry a can of gasoline as far as I need to refuel a vehicle. I cannot, however, drag an extension cord and do the same.

I know that EVs are a sore political point with many people. They're one of the few things out there that are dumped on and despised by people on both sides of the political spectrum. People on one side hate that wealthy people are forced to pay for government-funded incentives, and on the opposite side you have people who decry those same rebates claiming that they only benefit the wealthy. Go figure.

Now I like EVs. I believe that they're the future, and are viable replacements for the vast majority of vehicles on the road today. There are shortcomings to be sure, though I've no doubt that they'll be sorted out in the future with technology & infrastructure. Hell, before there were gas stations we had to purchase fuel from pharmacies and general stores that carried it, so we'll overcome this too. But as much as I like them, I do have to recognize that there are just some things that EVs cannot do. And pointing that out really seems to make supporters very uncomfortable.

[mr_maxime]

But as much as I like them, I do have to recognize that there are just some things that EVs cannot do. And pointing that out really seems to make supporters very uncomfortable.

You're pointing out things that EVs cannot do that don't matter for the majority of owners or car usage. Yes, in some scenarios Evs could be more impractical, but those are so out of the norm for daily usage to not really take into consideration for mass market adoption of Evs. I mean you're pointing out death Valley, what percentage of drivers actually go there on a daily basis?

[Michael]

I agree that electric cars still have their disadvantages, everyone understands this very obvious fact Robert. I think what we are excited about is just how fast this alternative form of transportation is expanding. 20 years ago EV technology was barely a blip on the radar. How much has gas engine technology changed in the past 20 years compared to electric? I pose barely none at all. Everything and I do mean everything you have mentioned as a weak spot for electric technology is getting better by the month! Do you know why? Because the technology is constantly getting better and doing it quicker than ever before. I touched on this on an earlier post as how we are growing everything about our everyday way of life faster.....exponentially faster. The first iPhone smartphone is what 11 or 12 years old? If the the iPhone were a teen it wouldn't even have a learner's permit now and just look how much has changed in that very short time.

I see charging stations becoming more and more popular. I see capacity and range doing nothing but getting better and charge times taking no longer than a gas stop (right now we are at the 20 min mark at a supercharger). In the near future I see battery packs getting smaller, lighter, and standardized in a way that you pull into a station, swap a battery pack out much like you would a propane tank at Walmart.

To be honest the ONLY thing that I hesitate about when considering an electric car is this; if I buy one now, will it be obsolete in a year? Will the EV platform be so much better in 12 months that I would have wish I had waited a little longer? It's coming and it's going to happen in the blink of an eye.

[SamHill]

Lots of adoption here in DC. Perfect for the kind of stop and go stuff we do. I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.

[DMCVegas]

I see charging stations becoming more and more popular. I see capacity and range doing nothing but getting better and charge times taking no longer than a gas stop (right now we are at the 20 min mark at a supercharger). In the near future I see battery packs getting smaller, lighter, and standardized in a way that you pull into a station, swap a battery pack out much like you would a propane tank at Walmart.

Unless it's a purpose-built service vehicle, swappable battery packs will most likely never happen. EVs are designed to either have the batteries buried as deep as possible for cargo capacity, or have them intergrated into "skateboard" platforms. Then there's the concern about physical damage from mishandling to the Li-Ion backs causing thermal events, or even just the scratching of the customer's vehicle during the deinstallation/installation process. Not to mention the logistics of charging arrays and safe storage of the cells.

To be honest the ONLY thing that I hesitate about when considering an electric car is this; if I buy one now, will it be obsolete in a year? Will the EV platform be so much better in 12 months that I would have wish I had waited a little longer? It's coming and it's going to happen in the blink of an eye.

That's a valid point. Particularly with the disposable attitudes of Silicon Valley culture as they've been brought in to co-develop EVs. IMO the solution will ultimately be the aftermarket who creates the standards, and Detroit will be forced to follow suit. For years all you could buy were carburetors for classic cars. But then as more younger people got involved in the hobby, the push for EFI solutions became more and more pressing. Thus Mega Squirt was born. A whole DIY market with support took hold. A few years later as EFI becomes more and more desirable, now suddenly Edlebrock & Holley start offering EFI kits for people.

So it will go with EVs. Before you know it, we'll have an aftermarket solution to gut out OEM batteries, motors, & controllers for not just older vehicles, but newer ones to retrofit more reliable and powerful systems to upgrade new cars the way we used to with our radios.

[Michael]

Unless it's a purpose-built service vehicle, swappable battery packs will most likely never happen. EVs are designed to either have the batteries buried as deep as possible for cargo capacity, or have them intergrated into "skateboard" platforms. Then there's the concern about physical damage from mishandling to the Li-Ion backs causing thermal events, or even just the scratching of the customer's vehicle during the deinstallation/installation process. Not to mention the logistics of charging arrays and safe storage of the cells.

Just because you can't forsee it doesn't mean it won't or can't happen. 30 years ago who would have dreamed we could buy an actual laser that a common person could own? Now we buy them at the dollar store to play with our cat.

[DMCVegas]

Just because you can't forsee it doesn't mean it won't or can't happen. 30 years ago who would have dreamed we could buy an actual laser that a common person could own? Now we buy them at the dollar store to play with our cat.

It's not a lack of vision, bur rather a question of practicality. Could you develop such a system for swapping batteries? Certainly. Would it be viable however? Probably not. There are just too many logistical problems that you have to deal with first to make such a system work.

1. Firstly you'd have to design an entire platform that is shared among multiple manufacturers to accept swappable battery packs.
2. Then you've got to figure out a way to swap out a battery pack that weighs over 1,000 lbs. and gets the vehicle roadworthy in less than 20-40 minutes (you're running against level 3 charging times).
3. Now you've got to consider start-up costs for such a station. How much land would you need for service bays and battery storage. Then you need fire safety systems for that many batteries in place. Then finally with an optimistic wholesale cost of $8K per battery unit, you need the capital for inventory.
4. Finally, you've got to calculate a price point for this service, and it must be competitive against a level 3 charging station. Or more specifically, is the cost difference between such a service and fast charging actually worth the 20% charging difference?

This is even before we consider the customer service issues with the batteries. Say someone buys a brand new EV, and drives it for a year or so. They're used to the range of the vehicle. Then one day they go on a trip, and use this service to swap out packs on a trip. Now the new battery has several hundred more cycles on it, and has a diminished capacity resulting in a lower range for the vehicle. Which is totally natural, but now you've got to explain that to the customer who sees that you've "ruined" their brand-new car. Let alone the other customer that brought in that worn battery pack, and now just swapped it out for a brand-new one without paying for it.

Swapping batteries would only work for a private fleet, such as taxi cabs to get the units back into service ASAP. With OTR freight transportation, it would be much easier to operate that Pony Express style: Driver comes into depot, drops trailer while entire EV tractors get swapped out with a fully charged vehicle. Granted that kills independent contractors, but it works.

I know that EVs are politically polarizing, and bring out emotions with people. But this isn't one of those cases here with me. I'm not against EVs, nor am I against your ideas simply because I can't foresee such a system. What I am saying is that from a business standpoint there are many questions here which much be asked, and demand answers before proceeding. Now if you, or someone else can figure out the answers to these questions about viability, which is not the same as possibility, then you can make the world a better place and your wallet a whole lot fatter. Which benefits us all.

[Michael]

Everything you said was based on what I referenced was "near future". Near future is not next month. Your scenarios are based on what we know today, not what we will learn, and not 10 or 20 years from now.

I'm going to save this thread and come back here in 2030 and say I told you so.

[mr_maxime]

I'm sure no one in the 80s thought smartphones would have been viable and had numerous logistical problems at the time.

Just look at computers, we went from floppies to 1tb micro SD cards

[MrChocky]

I'm sure no one in the 80s thought smartphones would have been viable and had numerous logistical problems at the time.

Just look at computers, we went from floppies to 1tb micro SD cards

That's more true than you know. The miniaturization that's gone into cell phone developed has had numerous side benefits, including today's cube
sats, and all the small computers in modern cars and now billions of IoT devices.

*But* battery technology has not had the same geometric improvements like Moore's law and the like. Improvements in capacity
have been small and linear (remember that there were electric cars 100 years ago). A lot of the advancement has in fact come
from power efficiency due to smaller size of devices.