Ouch. This seems familiar? A startup Car Co. shipping more than they are selling?

[Doogie]

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/where-are-tesla-s-12-000-missing-cars-PgtZaUsvTF20hK~v7jDEzA.html


I have had the excellent opportunity to drive a Tesla. Yes, it's everything you expect, and more. The car actually had the speed limited to 85 mph for the test drive. IT WAS WICKED FAST! I would write a check in .0000002 seconds (if my wife would let me and our bank account would support that decision!)

I watched this article and could not help but thinking that Elon Musk is feeling a bit like John Delorean did back in 1982...

Maybe I'm wrong? Your thoughts??

Doogie

[Chris4099]

I can't get the video to play from my work computer, so I don't know exactly what it says. However, I found a text version and the title was clearly click bate. Basically for the first year of production, Tesla was only selling in the US. This last year they've expanded into most of Europe and Asia. Right hand drive models were released a few months ago and started shipping to the UK and Japan. Basically the drop in US sales is simply them allocating more of the cars to overseas markets.

Remember, Tesla builds all cars to order. There are no major lots of cars sitting and waiting to be sold like what happened with the DeLorean. Considering they went from producing 22k cars a year to a rate of 35k now while still having a 3+ month wait time in all markets, even after 2 years is pretty impressive. They are still very much production constrained.

I ordered my Model S early last year. Comparing them to DMC was something I did frequently back then as they were still very new and could easily fail at that time. Fortunately after 1.5 years of ownership and 25k miles later, my MS is showing to be a well designed and built car from a company that's probably going to stick around a while. The real test will be when they release the Model 3. This will ultimately make or break them. If it fails, so will Tesla. But if they produce over 200k a year like they hope to, Tesla will become part of the new "big 4". :)

[Exolis]

Yeah, story is kind of vague but doesn't help the fact Tesla hasn't released any detailed information on this. If this catches on, it's going to be a big problem and investors are going to back out asap. I hope it is a case of bad journalism where the 12k cars are for Foreign markets. It would be a shame to see Tesla go down for Fraud, or even worst, Elon Musk.

Production is done based on Forecast, as I believe everyone follows the lean manufacturing method now. Where you have a steady stream of Parts coming into the factory and steady stream vehicles going out that will be sold in the near future based on demands and such.

As for the "Big 4", are you referring to just USA Production or US Based OEMS? To hit top 4 Global OEMs, Tesla will need to output over 8 million units lol. While Tesla is doing insanely well in the market, it'll be a long while before they push 200k. First they will need to market to more markets such as Medium Income families, SUV/CUV market, Truck market and Commercial Vehicles. Though that's the nice thing about Tesla, they were able to start off in a Niche market and expand from there, which is actually help driving the market for EVs.

[Chris4099]

Yeah, story is kind of vague but doesn't help the fact Tesla hasn't released any detailed information on this. If this catches on, it's going to be a big problem and investors are going to back out asap. I hope it is a case of bad journalism where the 12k cars are for Foreign markets. It would be a shame to see Tesla go down for Fraud, or even worst, Elon Musk.

Ya, hopefully they look beyond the headline and actually read the details. Tesla is now a global seller and you can't compare last year's sales numbers with current numbers while a company is expanding into new markets while production constrained.


As for the "Big 4", are you referring to just USA Production or US Based OEMS? To hit top 4 Global OEMs, Tesla will need to output over 8 million units lol. While Tesla is doing insanely well in the market, it'll be a long while before they push 200k. First they will need to market to more markets such as Medium Income families, SUV/CUV market, Truck market and Commercial Vehicles. Though that's the nice thing about Tesla, they were able to start off in a Niche market and expand from there, which is actually help driving the market for EVs.

I was simply playing on the term "big 3" and how it's used to reference Ford/Chrysler/GM in the US. You're right Tesla would need to make a lot of cars to push one of them out, which is why I jokingly referred to them as "big 4". I also agree that the Model S won't give them the sales they need to grow into an even bigger company. That's where the Model X and in particular, the Model 3 come into play. If they can release the Model 3 within their planned price point of $35K and give it a 200+ mile range, then that becomes a game changer. With the Gigafactory online supplying batteries and their plant at full production (which used to support 500k cars per year under GM/Toyota), there's no reason they can't hit 200K+ cars per year and grow from there.