While I totally agree that dealers and the vendors largely have the current market cornered on car sales, that isn't the complete picture. Plenty of cars still change hands privately. Some are in "off market" or word of mouth transactions. Cars on Craigslist etc that aren't scams are scooped up in a matter of hours usually, due to the fact they are typically priced substantially below dealers/vendors. And of course there are auctions... be it the "old school" car auctions like Mecum etc or online ones such as eBay and Bring a Trailer. In any event, dealer/vendor sales carry an extremely hefty premium compared to what private sellers are fetching.
I've seen a video with Stephen Wynne from the past year or so where he states the new builds will be in the vicinity of $150k, so your hunch is substantiated. I still don't see how they can overcome the obstacles of producing "new" vehicles given the amount of NLA parts and the costs to reproduce those (most of which have zero to do with the drivetrain); but alas, I'm beyond over this chicken & egg scenario.
And yes, there are plenty of folks hoarding parts. Off the top of my head I can think of multiple owners who have multiple left front fenders. Even recent videos of DMCH show LFFs in the background. The demand for some parts is somewhat a self-fulfilling prophecy. But yes, in the grand scheme of things, the stashes individuals have probably wouldn't realistically shift supply & demand in a net positive way regardless.