Valuation - DeLorean is "one of the hottest collector cars"

[SonnyV]

I believe Houston is working on a long-term production solution for body panels.

Is there really a demand for that, though? The panels don't wear out and most can be repaired after a minor accident. Short of one totaling the car, when are replacements really needed?

[MrChocky]

The DMC franchises are getting $70-100k for their nicer "pre-owned" cars right now... and DPI is apparently getting up to three times that for their "build" cars. So the era of six-figure DeLorean sales is indeed upon us. That being said, private sellers and non-DeLorean dealers aren't getting a slice of that action yet. Most of those sales seem to be in the $45-55k range.

There's only a couple of private sales right now. This is a very recent development (since summer, really) , and if it lasts, it will change the dynamic again. Most of the cars right now haven been snapped by the dealers - notably BHCC, DPI and DMC franchises.

[MrChocky]

Is there really a demand for that, though? The panels don't wear out and most can be repaired after a minor accident. Short of one totaling the car, when are replacements really needed?

Well, I don't believe the demand is non-existent. There's no question that making new ones would be "expensive" and demand is small. But for example, the panels on my project are heavily pitted. I think they can be repaired, but at some point
panels become too far gone. Any there's always someone looking to replace hoods or t-panels.

[SonnyV]

Well, I don't believe the demand is non-existent. There's no question that making new ones would be "expensive" and demand is small. But for example, the panels on my project are heavily pitted. I think they can be repaired, but at some point
panels become too far gone. Any there's always someone looking to replace hoods or t-panels.

There's a difference between non-existent and not worthwhile. The number of people who would buy a DeLorean for $10k is a lot greater than the number that would buy them for $100k, but they cannot be manufactured for $10k and will cost closer to $100k when remade. Panels are a part of that remanufacturing. They would have to be remade for a cost that's less than the cost of refurbishing a damaged one. The supply of most panels at the DMC facility will not be depleted for some time and there are still parts cars to provide donors.

The DeLorean is in a unique position where rust doesn't destroy the panels, keeping the demand low. How many would have to be bought to break even on the cost of making new ones? 10? 100? 1,000? If it's 1,000 that's about 10% of the total manufactured DeLoreans. On all non-wear parts, demand is capped at 10k units and it's unlikely it would exceed 5k units.

100 left front fenders at $1k would require an investment cost of $100k; if you sell them for $2.5k, you have to sell 40 to break even (excluding shipping and personnel costs) and that is going to take years to decades. It's just not a smart business decision.

[Timeless]

Is there really a demand for that, though? The panels don't wear out and most can be repaired after a minor accident. Short of one totaling the car, when are replacements really needed?

They're planning a decent amount of new builds plus the ~6000 cars already in the wild. Demand is not shrinking and with accidents and other issues it's peace of mind knowing body panel supply is not severely limited.
Even if the body dies were able to be rescued, so many years under water have attacked them to the point of no return.

[SonnyV]

...a decent amount of new builds plus the ~6000 cars already in the wild...

What do you consider a decent supply? The Low Volume Production Provision allows for 325/year. That gives a legal cap. Even so, how many buyers do you think there would be at $100k?

Where do you come up with 6k remaining? That number gets thrown around a lot, but it's a napkin sketch with no numbers to back it up. It's doubtful that there are 1k left on the roads.

[MrChocky]

What do you consider a decent supply? The Low Volume Production Provision allows for 325/year. That gives a legal cap. Even so, how many buyers do you think there would be at $100k?

Where do you come up with 6k remaining? That number gets thrown around a lot, but it's a napkin sketch with no numbers to back it up. It's doubtful that there are 1k left on the roads.

Well, with respect, your 1K is a guess as well.

I have actually done some recent research on that, that I published to Fanatics some months ago. However, based upon worst case attrition rates and sales rates (and I'll admit, a fair few
assumptions), there are at least 4500 cars on the road, and perhaps as many as the alleged 6500.

I believe the new car pricing will be closer to $150K. YMMV.

[SonnyV]

Well, with respect, your 1K is a guess as well.

I have actually done some recent research on that, that I published to Fanatics some months ago. However, based upon worst case attrition rates and sales rates (and I'll admit, a fair few
assumptions), there are at least 4500 cars on the road, and perhaps as many as the alleged 6500.

I believe the new car pricing will be closer to $150K. YMMV.

My 1k estimate comes from the DMC vendors based on individual sales and from people who manufacture parts; have you been following the sales of AT filters, for example? That's a great representation of the number of automatic cars that are on the road. There is no way that there are 4,500 cars running around. There may be 4,500 left, but my 1k estimate is a more accurate representation of cars in use.

[MrChocky]

There's a difference between non-existent and not worthwhile. The number of people who would buy a DeLorean for $10k is a lot greater than the number that would buy them for $100k, but they cannot be manufactured for $10k and will cost closer to $100k when remade. Panels are a part of that remanufacturing. They would have to be remade for a cost that's less than the cost of refurbishing a damaged one. The supply of most panels at the DMC facility will not be depleted for some time and there are still parts cars to provide donors.

The DeLorean is in a unique position where rust doesn't destroy the panels, keeping the demand low. How many would have to be bought to break even on the cost of making new ones? 10? 100? 1,000? If it's 1,000 that's about 10% of the total manufactured DeLoreans. On all non-wear parts, demand is capped at 10k units and it's unlikely it would exceed 5k units.

100 left front fenders at $1k would require an investment cost of $100k; if you sell them for $2.5k, you have to sell 40 to break even (excluding shipping and personnel costs) and that is going to take years to decades. It's just not a smart business decision.

Yes, no question. I'm not arguing the biz aspect, or really anything at all you said - although as I mentioned earlier, i think the cars will be close to $150K. All I'm trying to point out is different facets.

It may be that the rate of attrition of cars is enough to keep up with demand. There's another thing here too - there's an awful lot of people sitting on caches of parts. Enough to be significant to the brisk parts business the vendors are doing? Probably not, (and many of the parts
end up there anyway), but they're out there.

[MrChocky]

My 1k estimate comes from the DMC vendors based on individual sales and from people who manufacture parts; have you been following the sales of AT filters, for example? That's a great representation of the number of automatic cars that are on the road. There is no way that there are 4,500 cars running around. There may be 4,500 left, but my 1k estimate is a more accurate representation of cars in use.

My problem with these assertions (in the general case), is that they are just that - assertions. If you have some actual numbers, that's refreshing.

Now, there's no question my analysis would benefit from someone who's an actual mathematician (and not just one on paper, like me), and that
I made a number of assumptions as well as side-stepping the matter of running or not. Still, I did use some actual numbers, only slightly
made up.

The short short short version is thus - if we start with 9080 cars and work to 6500 cars in 2000 or so we get a 1.75% yearly attrition rate, and
going to 2021, about 4500. If you want to argue that, then by all means do.

The problem I'm having with an estimate of 1000 is two fold - first, I'm told there are 300-400 cars in the UK and about as many more
elsewhere outside the US. So it doesn't quite stack up there.

Second, a value of 1000 would imply an attrition rate since 2000 of a staggering 8.5% (the 1.75% is on par as industry average) and would
also be a strange jump in attrition since 2000.

Now, you are not the first to suggest monitoring the rate of consumables, and the ATF value (what it is) is interesting, but I don't think
by itself it is enough. But I would in any case, welcome an analysis based upon such values.